Newly disclosed papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military intervention to remove the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator
Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.
Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.
Policy of Isolation Considered Ineffective
Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.
Courses considered in the documents included:
- "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
- "Re-open dialogue", the option advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."
The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be prepared to do so".
Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers
It cautioned that military involvement would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.
"Barring a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."
The document continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."
Playing the Longer Game Recommended
The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, advised Blair that Zimbabwe "could become a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "a pivotal year for Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."
The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".
The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.
